Kora

ariel · 2nd May 2016, 01:26 AM

David,
I think that continuing this dialogue is fruitless: we are in different dimensions. I am trying to tell you that I agree with what you are saying about the uncertainty, but you hear that I insist on some certainty. Perhaps, I do not explain myself well...

As to more outcomes for a situation with no evidence, there is alway a possibility in the future that such an evidence is going to announce itself: a sale receipt, collection record etc. Till then we are in a limbo. Rather a common situation in any research: the model was not good, the assay sensitivity sucked, the "n" was miscalculated in a power analysis.... As long as the evidence is theoretically obtainable, it will be obtained sooner or later.

You are right: it is not good to plant seeds of unjustified hope. Just as proclaiming that the case is hopeless. In the absense of firm evidence we can only guess. Statistically, chances are ~95% that you are right. Just let's not forget about those little nasty 5% that this Kora might have been sold for real as a memento of the Great Durbar:-) I have seen enough cases of mild bladder infection progressing into full renal failure, and just a week ago I had a long phone conversation with a good colleague of mine, a very well-known medical researcher who had been found to have inoperable pancreatic cancer about 20 years ago... At a ripe age of 80+ he had been charged by our Society to develop a certain policy, and I am his sidekick. He drives me hard:-)))

That is exactly how I wanted to present the case to the owner. If I phrased it badly, it's my fault. But the meaning was there.

With best wishes,
Ariel

mahratt · 2nd May 2016, 03:55 AM

It's nice that we found out that the discussed sword - it's just a souvenir.. And most likely produced in the early 20th century. And the distinguished Berkley provided evidence of this.

Jim McDougall · 2nd May 2016, 05:22 AM

Very nicely explained Ariel, and nicely noted as well in accord Mahratt!!
Berkeley, beautifully done!!!
You deserve the Nobel Peace Prize here!!!!!!!

2nd May 2016, 01:26 AM	#1
ariel Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 5,503	David, I think that continuing this dialogue is fruitless: we are in different dimensions. I am trying to tell you that I agree with what you are saying about the uncertainty, but you hear that I insist on some certainty. Perhaps, I do not explain myself well... As to more outcomes for a situation with no evidence, there is alway a possibility in the future that such an evidence is going to announce itself: a sale receipt, collection record etc. Till then we are in a limbo. Rather a common situation in any research: the model was not good, the assay sensitivity sucked, the "n" was miscalculated in a power analysis.... As long as the evidence is theoretically obtainable, it will be obtained sooner or later. You are right: it is not good to plant seeds of unjustified hope. Just as proclaiming that the case is hopeless. In the absense of firm evidence we can only guess. Statistically, chances are ~95% that you are right. Just let's not forget about those little nasty 5% that this Kora might have been sold for real as a memento of the Great Durbar:-) I have seen enough cases of mild bladder infection progressing into full renal failure, and just a week ago I had a long phone conversation with a good colleague of mine, a very well-known medical researcher who had been found to have inoperable pancreatic cancer about 20 years ago... At a ripe age of 80+ he had been charged by our Society to develop a certain policy, and I am his sidekick. He drives me hard:-))) That is exactly how I wanted to present the case to the owner. If I phrased it badly, it's my fault. But the meaning was there. With best wishes, Ariel

2nd May 2016, 03:55 AM	#2
mahratt Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Russia Posts: 1,042	It's nice that we found out that the discussed sword - it's just a souvenir.. And most likely produced in the early 20th century. And the distinguished Berkley provided evidence of this.

2nd May 2016, 05:22 AM	#3
Jim McDougall Arms Historian Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Route 66 Posts: 10,192	Very nicely explained Ariel, and nicely noted as well in accord Mahratt!! Berkeley, beautifully done!!! You deserve the Nobel Peace Prize here!!!!!!!