David, I do not know, as in know for a fact with evidence to back an argument, however, most examples of the long keris form that I have seen have been attributable to Sumatera, some possibly to the Peninsula.
I bought my first Javanese one maybe 40 years ago, and that had a very old, flimsy blade in it. Since then I've acquired other Javanese ones that look like 19th or early 20th century ones, and my impression is that they were probably a fad, because they do not fulfil any social function that I know of, in Jawa.
I also have now, and have had in the past, a number of long keris that are not Javanese and can be attributed to the Peninsula or Sumatera. I think it is probably beyond question that they were originated by Malay nobles.
I've heard or read various theories for their existence, from the execution one to imitation of Portugese rapiers. My personal opinion is that they were a symbol of authority or rank.
However, as you know, I'm not very strong on things that fall outside the core culture. The minor keris cultures are a field of study unto themselves.
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