As Tim has commented in post #15, the objective of impending universal bans could be an attempt to alter public perception. However, if we consider the history of the effect of total bans upon the price and desirability of any commodity there seems to be a consistent predictable effect, and that is that when something is banned it becomes more desirable and the price rises accordingly.
An example:- during the 1970's and 1980's I regularly bought keris hilts in Jawa and Bali. At that time a wooden hilt of fine workmanship was always more expensive than an ivory hilt of ordinary quality. Ivory hilts only became more expensive when the workmanship was of a high quality. Following the introduction of ivory bans the prices of ivory hilts skyrocketed. No matter what the quality, if it was ivory, it cost more, a lot more, than even the finest work in any other material.
Examine history and we find that this is the effect of prohibition.
Where a price does not fall because of prohibition the causes can be linked to changing style, for example tiger skins. Forty and more years ago it was very fashionable to decorate one's house with parts of dead animals, mounted heads, skins as scatter rugs, elephant foot umbrella stands. It is no longer fashionable to have one's house looking like a natural history museum, thus the prices of these objects have fallen, in fact it is now often not possible to give this sort of thing away ( I speak from experience).
In a country like Australia, where I live, it is very probable that the ivory bans will bite. As in much of the rest of the developed world, Australians in general have a herd-like mentality and for the most part act in ways that our leaders want them to act. However, it can be expected that demand for all things, not only ivory, will increase in China in at least a compensating proportion to decrease in our developed countries. Total bans on ivory in developed countries will have no effect on desire or ability to purchase in China, and in some other developing countries. The elephants will continue to die.
By profession I am an auditor and risk consultant. In my profession we understand that it is not possible to protect absolutely against the occurrence of something that we do not want to occur. There is no control that cannot be circumvented.
If we do not want elephants to disappear, the risk of their disappearance must be managed, and total bans on trade in, or possession of, the desirable parts of an elephant's body will only increase desirability of those parts.
The answer to protection of elephants is to manage them as a resource. Give them a dollar value and regulate the trade, not ban it.
Regrettably politicians listen to voters and voters listen to half-baked green coloured idiots.
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