Hi Iain,
Really glad to have you in on this!! As admitted, these are pretty much free association comparisons, however they must be considered no matter how tenuous or simply too obvious as factors in these equations. The presence of Arab trade, whether maritime or via caravans and trade networks throughout Africa was so much more complex than imagined, and as you know, it seems more is discovered al the time.
As you note, creation of a handle on a blade is pretty much an obvious solution for holding the thing without any particular artistic or creative skill. Here again though, the almost blatant simplicity and character of such a hilt seems to have avoided being adopted by most tribal cultures across the Sahelian and Sudanese areas. The simple flattened cylinder hilt of Oman, as the Arabian entity we are considering, seems to have arisen somewhere in Africa as it certainly does not seem to have suddenly appeared in Oman or other Arabian regions. We might be tempted to consider the open hilt and guardless sabres of various Bedouin tribes in Palestinian regions, and how these might have transmitted into Egypt-Sudan-Sahara, but there again we have a tenuous situation. The trade route 'syndrome' seems more viable.
The idea of seeking the flared scabbard tip from migrating peoples and symbolism from these transmitted is of course well placed. As I noted, it seems that Merotic ancestry may be possible with whatever symbolic character it had, and we know that migrations westward from Nilotic regions were the case in early times.
But again, why the dramatic chronological gap, with no evidence of this feature regionally anywhere else but Sudan?
The 'laws of variation' of course make allowance for the fact that all kaskara do not have the flared feature on scabbards, but how often do we see exceptions? How often are the Manding scabbards different? It is the preponderance of these features in these dual, seemingly disconnected instances that give us cause to wonder on what connection there might be. I still think the trade conduit I suggested may be viable, but of course remain open to other possibilities as you note. There are few who know these tribal cultures as you do with the years of tenacious study, but I simply want to test out these possibilities.
All the best
Jim
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