Well, “The Met” attributed it to North India, and it came from the famous collection of Giovanni Morosini who obviously knew where it came from.
As I mentioned before, virtually all Indo-Persian lances have rather similar constructions due to their very well-defined function: cavalry use , lancing the opponent. We have to rely on their decorative techniques and first and foremost on their provenance and attribution by superspecialists. Not having the documents of the former and not being the latter, I have to rely on their collective conclusion. This is in part why I said “ more likely”.
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