Well, I've already seen chinese tsubas of rather exceptional quality, very good copies of chinese ancient bronze, crude folding does not seem to be something outside of their league.
However I have to disagree with many things said: I don't think that fakers "learn" or "educate" themselves on how to make good fakes. Faking in China is a mass-production, therefore number one symptom of being fake - it looks like 100 other swords on ebay at the moment (not this one). Second things that are big no for serious collectos: swastikas on scabbards (btw there were gendais that were given to nazi raider and boat commanders who visited Japan, with swastikas on scabbards, but they are more than rare), crude "horimono" etchings of dragons, crude characters on the scabbard, etched wild "damascus", red rust all around the place, but they work for your average shmo (or should I say shmoizaki, ninja in training ?). Obviously they will continue to make their fakes for the "big market" (btw how many of "us"-collectors are out there ?).
Is this one fake - most likely it is. It is sad, as I for example can not see myself collecting anything chinese ever - the market is so flooded with stupid fakers, I simply don't want to touch it.
However I still think that someone who is capable to make a really classy shashka for example does not need to make fakes - the price of a modern made quality shashka is well above 1500$, with no "faking", with demand being much greater than supply. I've regularly seen 10,000$ being paid for fine modern damascus swords, while similar antique item would barely fetch 3000$ max on ebay. Just like with japanese swords, where something new of gendai quality will cost you 4000-6000$ vs. 1200$ for quality mumei gendai.
So I think as soon as they start making something really good, they will realize that "antique" is not the most profitable market. They will find a marketing department in Dagestan or Colorado
, and start making repros instead of fakes.